# Prediction Odds (`events_prediction_odds`)

> What real money says about a question: per-outcome probabilities, the volume standing behind them, and when the market resolves.

- Category: Events & catalysts
- MCP tool: `events_prediction_odds`
- REST: `GET /events/prediction-odds`
- x402 price: $0.01 per call (USDC on Base)
- HTML: https://www.f1ow.com/docs/tools/events_prediction_odds

## What it does

Market-implied prediction-market odds for a topic (e.g. 'Fed rate cut', 'bitcoin 100k'). Returns the most active matching markets with per-outcome probabilities, volume, and resolution date.

## Parameters

| Name | Type | In | Required | Description |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| `query` | string | query | yes | Topic to match against market questions, e.g. 'Fed', 'bitcoin', 'ETH ETF'. |

## Call it

### cURL

```bash
curl "https://mcp.f1ow.com/v1/events/prediction-odds?query=bitcoin+price" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $F1OW_API_KEY"
```

### MCP

```json
{
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "id": 1,
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "name": "events_prediction_odds",
    "arguments": {
      "query": "bitcoin price"
    }
  }
}
```

### TypeScript

```ts
const res = await fetch("https://mcp.f1ow.com/v1/events/prediction-odds?query=bitcoin+price", {
  headers: { Authorization: `Bearer ${process.env.F1OW_API_KEY}` },
});
const data = await res.json(); // the tool's result as JSON, typed in the OpenAPI spec
console.log(data);
```

### Python

```python
import os, requests

res = requests.get(
    "https://mcp.f1ow.com/v1/events/prediction-odds?query=bitcoin+price",
    headers={"Authorization": f"Bearer {os.environ['F1OW_API_KEY']}"},
)
data = res.json()  # the tool's result as JSON, typed in the OpenAPI spec
print(data)
```

### WebSocket

```jsonc
// wss://mcp.f1ow.com/v1/ws — subprotocol "jsonrpc-2.0", Authorization: Bearer <key>
{
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "id": 1,
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "name": "events_prediction_odds",
    "arguments": {
      "query": "bitcoin price"
    }
  }
}

// Or push a fresh result whenever it changes (minimum interval 15 s)
{
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "id": 2,
  "method": "subscriptions/subscribe",
  "params": {
    "name": "events_prediction_odds",
    "arguments": {
      "query": "bitcoin price"
    },
    "intervalSeconds": 60
  }
}
```

### x402

```bash
# No account: the first call answers 402 with a PAYMENT-REQUIRED challenge;
# an x402 client pays it in USDC on Base and retries.
curl "https://mcp.f1ow.com/x402/v1/events/prediction-odds?query=bitcoin+price"
```

## Sample response

Captured 2026-11-13. The JSON is what REST and WebSocket return and the `structuredContent` of an MCP call (trimmed):

```json
{
  "markets": [
    {
      "endDate": "2026-11-13T17:00:00Z",
      "liquidityUsd": 55148.77913,
      "outcomes": [
        {
          "label": "Yes",
          "probability": 0.9405
        },
        {
          "label": "No",
          "probability": 0.0595
        }
      ],
      "question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 13?",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-66k-on-november-13-2026",
      "volumeUsd": 145288.494814
    },
    {
      "endDate": "2026-11-13T17:00:00Z",
      "liquidityUsd": 38360.29897,
      "outcomes": [
        {
          "label": "Yes",
          "probability": 0.1385
        },
        {
          "label": "No",
          "probability": 0.8615
        }
      ],
      "question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 13?",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-70k-on-november-13-2026",
      "volumeUsd": 145888.209217
    },
    {
      "endDate": "2026-11-13T17:00:00Z",
      "liquidityUsd": 56263.79806,
      "outcomes": [
        {
          "label": "Yes",
          "probability": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "label": "No",
          "probability": 0.9915
        }
      ],
      "question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 13?",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-74k-on-november-13-2026",
      "volumeUsd": 104544.397726
    },
    {
      "endDate": "2026-11-13T17:00:00Z",
      "liquidityUsd": 43582.82714,
      "outcomes": [
        {
          "label": "Yes",
          "probability": 0.677
        },
        {
          "label": "No",
          "probability": 0.323
        }
      ],
      "question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 13?",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-68k-on-november-13-2026",
      "volumeUsd": 127183.111092
    },
    {
      "endDate": "2026-11-13T17:00:00Z",
      "liquidityUsd": 50917.68951,
      "outcomes": [
        {
          "label": "Yes",
          "probability": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "label": "No",
          "probability": 0.9985
        }
      ],
      "question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 13?",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-76k-on-november-13-2026",
      "volumeUsd": 94813.286624
    },
    {
      "endDate": "2026-11-13T17:00:00Z",
      "liquidityUsd": 42549.76347,
      "outcomes": [
        {
          "label": "Yes",
          "probability": 0.02
        },
        {
          "label": "No",
          "probability": 0.98
        }
      ],
      "question": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 13?",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-72k-on-november-13-2026",
      "volumeUsd": 102936.753233
    }
  ],
  "generatedAt": "2026-11-13T08:05:47.3014062+00:00"
}
```

Over MCP the text report a model reads comes with it:

```text
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 13?
  Yes 94% / No 6% | vol $145288 | ends 2026-11-13T17:00:00Z
  https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-66k-on-november-13-2026
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 13?
  Yes 14% / No 86% | vol $145888 | ends 2026-11-13T17:00:00Z
  https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-70k-on-november-13-2026
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 13?
  Yes 1% / No 99% | vol $104544 | ends 2026-11-13T17:00:00Z
  https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-74k-on-november-13-2026
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 13?
  Yes 68% / No 32% | vol $127183 | ends 2026-11-13T17:00:00Z
  https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-68k-on-november-13-2026
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 13?
  Yes 0% / No 100% | vol $94813 | ends 2026-11-13T17:00:00Z
  https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-76k-on-november-13-2026
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 13?
  Yes 2% / No 98% | vol $102937 | ends 2026-11-13T17:00:00Z
  https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-72k-on-november-13-2026
```

## Related tools

- [ETF Flows](https://www.f1ow.com/docs/tools/catalysts_etf_flows) — Daily spot-ETF net flows for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP — the latest day, the per-fund breakdown, and the trailing trend it has to be read against.
- [Crypto Calendar](https://www.f1ow.com/docs/tools/catalysts_calendar) — Crypto events landing inside the next seven days, filterable to a single coin when only its own catalysts matter.
- [Macro Calendar](https://www.f1ow.com/docs/tools/catalysts_economic_calendar) — CPI, FOMC, jobs and GDP — the macro releases that move crypto anyway — from two days back to a week ahead, filtered by importance.
- [Exchange Listings](https://www.f1ow.com/docs/tools/catalysts_exchange_listings) — Official venue notices for new listings, delistings and other trading changes, with scheduled times, recent history, and coin or venue filters.